What happened
California’s Air Resources Board, Thursday, voted to ban the sale of internal combustion engine cars by 2035.
Why is it important?
California is one of the largest new-car markets in the United States, and automakers have said they are ready to comply, which means more electric cars will be on the market in the coming years.
What’s next
The California Auto Commission will need to apply to the Environmental Protection Agency for an exemption to enact these regulations. If exempted, other states may choose to comply with Carb’s stricter rules.
California is the only state allowed to set its own emissions standards under the Clean Air Act. Other states are allowed to follow California’s standards-more than a dozen have so far followed California’s standards (PDF)-but California is the only state that can actually set standards that differ from federal standards. With the implementation of an important new law, many people wonder what effect it might have on the state of vehicles in the United States.
Let’s take a closer look at what the California Air Resources Board’s proposed Advanced Clean Car II regulations (PDF) may mean for your future driveway.
The basic case of CARB
CARB’s“Advanced Clean Car II regulations” began with an executive order issued by California governor Gavin Newsom in 2020. At its most basic, the regulation would ban the sale of internal combustion passenger cars and light trucks until 2035, meaning that zero-emission vehicles would be the only vehicles allowed to be sold after that point.
But it won’t happen all at once. Instead, CARB will set quotas at different points between now and 2035. Starting with the 2026, the regulations will require 35 percent of passenger cars and light trucks to be zero-emission versions. This will increase to about 51% in the 2028, and the level of rigor will increase every year until it reaches 100% by 2035.
There are some exceptions to this process. Medium and heavy trucks will be subject to different timetables and there are no rules on used cars, so your brand-new, salt-free 1993 Honda Civic isn’t in danger of disappearing (unless it can’t pass through soot) . The plug-in hybrid will still be available for sale and use after 2035, although the standard may require more pure electric range.
If this sounds tense, “It’s monumental,” Danyll Spurling, a CARB board member, told CNN This Week. “It’s the most important thing CARB has done in the last 30 years. It’s important not just for California, but for the country and the world.”
California is far from the first place to take action to ban the sale of diesel locomotive. A number of countries have proposed similar provisions on similar timetables, more or less for several years. Since Newson’s announcement in 2020, several other states have pledged to follow suit, including Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. The federal government has also pledged to stop buying gasoline-powered cars for its fleet by 2035. Once CARB votes these laws through, more states should join in.
Response
California is one of the largest new-car markets in the United States, so it’s no surprise that many automakers have expressed support for CARB’s new regulations — or, at least, pledged to get involved, because many manufacturers already have plans to phase out internal combustion engines on a similar schedule.
“The CARB advanced Clean Vehicle II rule is a landmark standard that will define clean transportation and set an example for the United States,” Ford’s chief sustainability officer, Bob Hollycross, said in a statement
“Toyota continues to share its vision for [ greenhouse gas ] reductions and carbon neutrality targets with CARB and the country,” Toyota said in a press release. “In our recent communication, we acknowledged CARB’s leadership in climate policy and its authority to set vehicle emission standards under the Clean Air Act.”
“GM and California share a vision for an all-electric future that will eliminate emissions from new light vehicles by 2035,” a GM spokesman said in a statement. “We look forward to working with California and other state, local and federal governments to develop free policies to achieve this shared vision.”
“Stellantis is committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2038,” a Stellantis spokesman said in a statement, “And we have recently invested $35 billion in automotive electrification and related software to launch electric vehicles in the U.S. by 2030.””These actions support the goal of the California Advanced Clean Vehicle II rule.”
Representatives for Hyundai and Volkswagen did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Speed Bump
While Carb’s plan may leave most people in a daze, there is still a lot to do in the interim, how it will be implemented, and what impact it might have.
In 2019, the Donald Trump administration removed the state’s ability to set its own emissions standards. Although the Biden administration has since reinstated the exemption, that does not mean it remains unchanged. As the New York Times reports, attorneys general from 17 states have filed suit to revoke California’s immunity again. Oral arguments are not yet scheduled, but if the judge rules in the Attorney General’s favor, it could prevent California from implementing its policy.
There is also the issue of vehicle costs. According to automotive news, the average selling price of an electric car is currently close to $63,000, about $15,000 more than the average transaction price for a new car of all drive types. As technology improves in terms of accessibility (and thus overall cost) , carmakers have begun to release cheaper and cheaper electric vehicles, but there is still a long way to go.
Supply is also a problem. At this point, making anything is a hassle, and electric cars are no exception, given the amount of special materials needed for components like battery cells and electric motors. CARB’s mandate could send more electric cars to states that follow it, leaving other states in trouble while they wait for extra inventory, if it can. That may improve as carmakers go all-out in building electric cars, but in the short term it could be frustrating for buyers.
Finally, there is the question of infrastructure. Despite Tesla’s vast network of Superchargers, many companies are still rolling out EV charging infrastructure in both densely populated and non-densely populated parts of the country. Anyone traveling on the road and needing a DC charge might encounter new chargers that either don’t work at all or have significantly lower charging rates than the car can handle. That too is improving, but the short-term growing pains will still prove tricky for some buyers, especially those without homes who can not install level 2 chargers near their parking spaces.
